Coronal Mass Ejections
Are Becoming More of a Threat
In October 2003 earth was affected by what at the time was a rare occurrence, a strong coronal mass ejection. This coronal mass ejection from the sun knocked out power in parts of Sweden and South Africa. Of course, it was not the first time a CME had threatened earth, but it was the first time I had heard of a CME.
A CME as it is known, is an eruption from the sun’s corona or outer layer. These eruptions are filled with plasma or magnetic fields that eventually reach earth at about 500 miles per hour. Compared to solar flares which move at the speed of light, CME’s move much slower.
On Friday May 10, 2024, a CME said to be the strongest in a very long time was forecast for the weekend. The anomaly was forming out of sunspot AR3664, a formation about the size of Earth. News outlets were painting the CME as a great occasion to see an aurora borealis type event, complete with color. There were warnings about the effect a CME can have on communications systems but not much else was said. It was billed as a must-see event, but the truth is that a strong CME can be very destructive.
How destructive? Enough to leave large stretches without power for long periods of time. Should we be worried? Well, yes, we should be concerned, but we should not be running for the hills just yet. CMEs are becoming more common, and most scientists see them as an expanding threat to our society. In fact, many in the science community refer to the 1859 solar storm dubbed the Carrington Event, one of the strongest CME’s on record. It caused extensive damage to the telegraph system that took months to repair. A repeat of that type of event would be catastrophic to the world’s elaborate digital infrastructure. Perhaps destroying delicate EHV transformers that have a lead time of one year to build and 6 months to repair. Such damage would be a disaster for the US economy and would certainly result in looting and widespread disorder.
What does this mean to you. Well, it is certainly something to plan for, especially if the planet is going to be facing this barrage on a regular basis. The thought of long periods without power should give you an idea of the type of event we would all be facing. Think about how you would be affected and plan around that thought. Your refrigerator would stop working and your food would be lost. There would be no light or power to keep the lights or cell phone on. In most cases, your water faucet would stop working because the pumps that pump your water would no longer operate. Electric and tech dependent cars would cease to operate, and we would find ourselves in a primitive existence. A mass power outage caused by a CME may force you to leave cities, abandon your home and the life that you’ve built. This would be a devastating proposition, and the truth is most of us are not prepared for it. Most folks will head for areas where the power remains, at least until the ordeal is over.
If you stay, you must be prepared to shelter-in-place and scrounge for resources because there will be a run on supplies and water within the first few days. If you were paying attention, you already have goods stored for sheltering in place or a go-bag to leave for greener pastures. Remember, the longer the outage the more desperate things will become. There will be the typical threats of looting and gangs trying to gather whatever resources they can. The police will not be able to protect everyone, and chances are you may become the victim of a crime. Keep this in mind when deciding when to leave, it may be that leaving at the beginning of the outage may be your best choice. Only you won’t know that at the time.
If you leave, the possibility that you will have a hard time exiting the city may be realized during the beginning of your trip. Simply because certain roads, bridges, and tunnels may be closed. If so, you will have to travel during the day when there may be less road closures. Of course, there will be more people attempting to do the same, so do it sooner rather than later. If you have a good ham radio, try to communicate with others to determine the extent of the outage and where there is a safe haven. Travel with others when you can and make every effort to get to a location with friends or family, preferably in an area where there is power. If not, get there and if possible, stay in a hotel, it will still be safer than being in a city without power.
Remember a CME may be what brings down the power grid, but it will be people that turn the event into a dire situation. Hopefully, things won’t turn out to be as bad as we envision. But it is better to be prepared for the worse than to be caught off guard. Safe trails out there...
